Costanza's Belgian Jupiler League Picks

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Beware The Belgian
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Since I'm new here, I might as well share my weekly picks and writeups from the Belgian Jupiler League.
I'm planning to post my most confident picks every week here and try to make some profit.

For stats on my previous picks check http://jupilerleague.blogabet.com/
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Pick 1: AA Gent - Roeselare [Azian Handicap -1] @ 2.00 (4 Units)

AA Gent is playing better each week and they just can't afford to lose points here if they want to get totally back on track after their poor season start. Playing at home with an overall better team then roeselare they should be able to make it with more then 1 goal difference. The motivation is going to be very high to win this match after losing points last week in a match they should have easely won against Brussels. Roeselare has got a coach with a vision to take a lot of risk in the end of a match if his team is behind. Most of the time, their opponets can use this in their advantage to score another goal on the counter.

Pick 2: Lierse - Bergen [Draw No Bet] @ 1.96 (3 Units)

Lierse has got an overall very bad team this year. They wanted to get financially healty first and are playing with a very young team. So far they managed to only take 1 point in 10 matches and things do not look very good at the moment with some important players injured. Striker Bob Peeters, Defender Verheyen and goalkeeper Van Der Jeugt are all out for this match. Lierse has got a big problem to score this season with only 4 goals scored in 10 matches. Beren on the other hand is the team that promoted from 2nd division and doing quite good in the league. Their vision was to keep their team together for some years to create a lot of automatisms in the team. A couple players joined the team for some enfordement in front. Bergen is known for its very solid defense with only 11 goals conceded (5 of them in 1 match against the leader). The pressure is high for lierse to finally win a match and their motivation should also not be the problem. I just don't see them doing much in the league before some drastic changes are made. With their offense it's going to be difficult to break down the solid defense of Bergen.
 

Beware The Belgian
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Pick 1: AA Gent - Roeselare [Azian Handicap -1] @ 2.00 (4 Units) --> SCORE 2 - 0 [WON + 4 Units]
Pick 2: Lierse - Bergen [Draw No Bet] @ 1.96 (3 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 0 [NO BET + 0 Units]
thumbs.gif


Picks = 2
Won / No Bet / Lost = 1 / 1 / 0 (100%)
Units Bet = 7 units
Units Return = 11 units
Average Stake = 3.5 units
Profit = + 4 Units
ROI = 157 %
 

Beware The Belgian
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Pick 3: Lokeren - Club Brugge @ 1.80 (2 Units)

Lokeren just had a coach change after having a really bad season start being on 15th position after 10 weeks. Their old coach Muslin who had some previous succes with the team came back. Still there are a lot of problems in the lineup that can not be solved by a coach change. Almost the entire defense of lokeren is injured at the moment and attacking wing player Filipovic is suspended. In front they also have a difficult time to score. Their 2 Strikers have so far all together scored only once in 10 matches. Fans have no faith in their team for this match which is always a good indication. Club Brugge has also a couple injured players, but nothing they can't handle. It's really important for them to win this match because they have 2 very difficult upcomming matches. Even though I'm quite confident I'm only putting 2 units on this because of the coach change. Lokeren has done it twice before to win against Brugge the match after their coach was send home.
 

Beware The Belgian
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Costanza said:
Pick 3: Lokeren - Club Brugge @ 1.80 (2 Units) --> SCORE 3 - 2 [LOST - 2 Units]

Picks = 3
Won / No Bet / Lost = 1 / 1 / 1 (50%)

Units Bet = 9 units
Units Return = 11 units
Average Stake = 3.0 units
Profit = + 2 Units
ROI = 122 %
 

Beware The Belgian
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tonights play:

Pick 4: Westerlo - Racing Genk [Draw No Bet] @ 1.66 (5 Units)

Genk is at the moment without any doubt the best team in the league and continues to show a real hunger to win. Westerlo did not impress me last week eventhough they won. Since Genk has always had a difficult match against Westerlo I'm going for the very valuable Draw No Bet. I just don't see them losing this match!
 

Beware The Belgian
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Pick 4: Westerlo - Racing Genk [Draw No Bet] @ 1.66 (5 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 1 [WON + 3.3 Units]

:ok:
close win for Genk after Westerlo missed some chances for the 1 - 1.
 

Beware The Belgian
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Pick 1: AA Gent - Roeselare [Azian Handicap -1] @ 2.00 (4 Units) --> SCORE 2 - 0 [WON + 4 Units]
Pick 2: Lierse - Bergen [Draw No Bet] @ 1.96 (3 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 0 [NO BET + 0 Units]
Pick 3: Lokeren - Club Brugge @ 1.80 (2 Units) --> SCORE 3 - 2 [LOST - 2 Units]
Pick 4: Westerlo - Racing Genk [Draw No Bet] @ 1.66 (5 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 1 [WON + 3.3 Units]
statistics so far:

Picks = 4
Won / No Bet / Lost = 2 / 1 / 1 (75%)
Units Bet = 14 units
Units Return = 19.3 units
Average Stake = 3.5 units
Profit = + 5.3 Units
ROI = 137 %
 

Beware The Belgian
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Pick 5: Sint-Truiden - Lierse @ 1.80 (4 Units)

Sint-Truiden saw their coach leave after the players decided they did not want to work with him anymore. Motivation to win against by far the weakest team of the league will be very big. So far Sint-Truiden hasn't really played that bad but they had some bad luck and also some problems to score in front. Lierse still has the same known problems at the moment. Losing this match will mean they have practically no chance to get away from the last place, so the pressure on all the young unexperianced players will be just a bit to high in my opinion.
There is no option but to win for Sint-Truiden. With an overall much better team in a home match and a huge amount of motivation after they saw their coach leave this should not be a problem...
 

Beware The Belgian
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Pick 5: Sint-Truiden - Lierse @ 1.80 (4 Units) --> SCORE 4 - 0 [WON + 3.2 Units]


very convincing win by Sint-Truiden with 4 - 0 !
2 winning picks this week, back next weekend with more hopefully winning picks from the Belgian Jupiler League...
 

Beware The Belgian
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Pick 1: AA Gent - Roeselare [Azian Handicap -1] @ 2.00 (4 Units) --> SCORE 2 - 0 [WON + 4 Units]
Pick 2: Lierse - Bergen [Draw No Bet] @ 1.96 (3 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 0 [NO BET + 0 Units]
Pick 3: Lokeren - Club Brugge @ 1.80 (2 Units) --> SCORE 3 - 2 [LOST - 2 Units]
Pick 4: Westerlo - Racing Genk [Draw No Bet] @ 1.66 (5 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 1 [WON + 3.3 Units]
Pick 5: Sint-Truiden - Lierse @ 1.80 (4 Units) --> SCORE 4 - 0 [WON + 3.2 Units]

Picks = 5
Won / No Bet / Lost = 3 / 1 / 1 (80%)

Units Bet = 18 units
Units Return = 26.5 units
Average Stake = 3.6 units
Profit = + 8.5 Units
ROI = 147 %
 

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Keep up the good work Constanza. Nice to have a seemingly qualified handicapper from Belgium. The Jupiler League always was a bit of a mystery to me ;-)
 

New member
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sorry for misspelling the name

costanza as in george costanza? i love seinfeld!!
 

Beware The Belgian
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indeed as in George Costanza, I'm also a huge Seinfeld fan :)

Small tip for todays Beglian 2nd Division: "Racing Waregem - Antwerp FC " still available @ 1.55 (not taking this in my selection since it's not a Jupiler League match)
 

Beware The Belgian
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Costanza said:
Small tip for todays Beglian 2nd Division: "Racing Waregem - Antwerp FC " still available @ 1.55 (not taking this in my selection since it's not a Jupiler League match)

:ok:

Racing Waregem - Antwerp FC (2 - 3)
 

Beware The Belgian
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Pick 7: Racing Genk - Club Brugge [Draw No Bet] @ 1.66 (4 Units)
 

Beware The Belgian
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Pick 1: AA Gent - Roeselare [Azian Handicap -1] @ 2.00 (4 Units) --> SCORE 2 - 0 [WON + 4 Units]
Pick 2: Lierse - Bergen [Draw No Bet] @ 1.96 (3 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 0 [NO BET + 0 Units]
Pick 3: Lokeren - Club Brugge @ 1.80 (2 Units) --> SCORE 3 - 2 [LOST - 2 Units]
Pick 4: Westerlo - Racing Genk [Draw No Bet] @ 1.66 (5 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 1 [WON + 3.3 Units]
Pick 5: Sint-Truiden - Lierse @ 1.80 (4 Units) --> SCORE 4 - 0 [WON + 3.2 Units]
Pick 6: Lierse - Germinal Beerschot @ 1.95 (6 Units) --> SCORE 2 - 3 [WON + 5.7 Units]

:ok:

Picks = 6
on / No Bet / Lost = 4/ 1 / 1 (80%)
Units Bet = 24 units

Units Return = 38.2 units
Average Stake = 4.0 units
Profit = + 14.2 Units
ROI = 159 %
 

Beware The Belgian
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Pick 1: AA Gent - Roeselare [Azian Handicap -1] @ 2.00 (4 Units) --> SCORE 2 - 0 [WON + 4 Units]
Pick 2: Lierse - Bergen [Draw No Bet] @ 1.96 (3 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 0 [NO BET + 0 Units]
Pick 3: Lokeren - Club Brugge @ 1.80 (2 Units) --> SCORE 3 - 2 [LOST - 2 Units]
Pick 4: Westerlo - Racing Genk [Draw No Bet] @ 1.66 (5 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 1 [WON + 3.3 Units]
Pick 5: Sint-Truiden - Lierse @ 1.80 (4 Units) --> SCORE 4 - 0 [WON + 3.2 Units]
Pick 6: Lierse - Germinal Beerschot @ 1.95 (6 Units) --> SCORE 2 - 3 [WON + 5.7 Units]
Pick 7: Racing Genk - Club Brugge [Draw No Bet] @ 1.66 (4 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 0 [NO BET + 0 Units]

Picks = 7
Won / No Bet / Lost = 4/ 2 / 1 (85%)
Units Bet = 28 units
Units Return = 42.2 units
Average Stake = 4.0 units
Profit = + 14.2 Units
ROI = 150 %
 

Beware The Belgian
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Pick 1: AA Gent - Roeselare [Azian Handicap -1] @ 2.00 (4 Units) --> SCORE 2 - 0 [WON + 4 Units]
Pick 2: Lierse - Bergen [Draw No Bet] @ 1.96 (3 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 0 [NO BET + 0 Units]
Pick 3: Lokeren - Club Brugge @ 1.80 (2 Units) --> SCORE 3 - 2 [LOST - 2 Units]
Pick 4: Westerlo - Racing Genk [Draw No Bet] @ 1.66 (5 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 1 [WON + 3.3 Units]
Pick 5: Sint-Truiden - Lierse @ 1.80 (4 Units) --> SCORE 4 - 0 [WON + 3.2 Units]
Pick 6: Lierse - Germinal Beerschot @ 1.95 (6 Units) --> SCORE 2 - 3 [WON + 5.7 Units]
Pick 7: Racing Genk - Club Brugge [Draw No Bet] @ 1.66 (4 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 0 [NO BET + 0 Units]
Pick 8: Bergen - AA Gent [Draw No Bet] @ 1.66 (5 Units) --> SCORE 0 - 1 [WON + 3.3 Units]


:ok:

Picks = 8
Won / No Bet / Lost = 5/ 2 / 1 (87%)

Units Bet = 33 units
Units Return = 50.5 units
Average Stake = 4.0 units
Profit = + 17.5 Units
ROI = 153 %
 

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